1. Introduction

“As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.” – Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881)

1.1. UDOT Weather Operations/RWIS Program

The response of the transportation community to the weather challenges has evolved over time, as forecasting tools have become more accurate, reliable and precise. UDOT has taken a notable step forward through the creation of its Weather Operations/RWIS Program. The UDOT Weather Operations Program became operational for the 2002 Winter Olympics. In preparation for the Olympics, a 30-year weather history of Utah was researched, and the reasons to prepare for adverse weather conditions during the Olympics were identified as follows (Horel et al, 2002).

· “Significant weather events have affected all past winter Olympics.”

· “Adverse weather (e.g., heavy snowfall, strong winds, low visibility due to fog or snow, or avalanches) may delay or postpone events associated with the 2002 Winter Games.”

· “Snow and ice-covered streets and highways… could impede road access to the venues by athletes and spectators while limited visibility and high winds could hamper aviation operations over mountain passes.”

· “The Olympic weather support system must meet the diverse requirements of the 2002 Winter Games in the context of the winter weather often experienced in northern Utah.”

The need to document weather events prior to and during the Olympics resulted in an increase in weather sensors and weather stations installed at key locations throughout Utah. During the Olympics, a Hazardous Winter Weather Potential was produced for the primary transportation corridors twice each day, which included the weather forecast as well as wind, temperature, and precipitation predictions. This report was also produced for the avalanche zones along US Route 189. The information from these reports along with forecasts from NorthWest Weathernet Inc. assisted UDOT with their winter road maintenance (Horel et al., 2002).

Nationally unique, the UDOT Weather Operations/ RWIS Program assists the DOT operations, maintenance, and construction functions by providing detailed, often customized, area-specific weather forecasts. Established under the UDOT Traffic Management Division, the program has two main components. First, the Weather Operations component features four staff meteorologists stationed in the Traffic Operations Center (TOC), providing year-round weather support for winter maintenance, road construction and rehabilitation projects, TOC operations, the Highway Avalanche Safety Program, planning, risk management, training, and incident management. With the staffed meteorologists, quality control of weather forecasts is ensured. Weather briefings are conducted in the TOC on a daily basis, involving TOC personnel, area supervisors, and maintenance foremen. In addition, the program provides tailored crew-specific forecasts in a text format for all 82 maintenance sheds (Patterson, 2005).

Another component of the program is the intelligent transportation systems (ITS) component, which manages 48 road weather information system (RWIS) stations and expert systems such as bridge spray systems, high wind alerts, and fog warnings (Patterson, 2005).

As shown in Figure 1‑1, the program provides various services to numerous customers within UDOT. It provides the Office of Central Maintenance with year-round, long-term weather forecasts that are mainly used for planning in terms of materials (storage & purchasing), staffing, and equipment. It provides construction engineers and contractors with weather forecasts for new construction and renovation projects, which are mainly used to plan for staffing, materials, and equipment. The program provides pre-storm, during-storm, and post-storm weather forecasts to the maintenance engineers, area supervisors and local sheds. In addition to snow and ice control, such forecasts are also useful for the operations/projects of road rehabilitation, weed abatement, and avalanche safety.

Figure 1‑1: Organizational Chart of UDOT Weather Operations/RWIS Program’s Services

The TOC also receives weather service from the program, which is expected to result in better information for TOC staffing and planning, better traveler information (through 511/ CommuterLink/ Variable Message Signs), as well as improved operations of the Advanced Traffic Management System (ATMS), Incident Management Teams (IMTs), Signal Group, and Department of Public Safety.

As a result of the program, road and weather information with improved quality and accessibility is available for UDOT personnel and other stakeholders. This is expected to have a positive impact on UDOT’s goals and objectives, in terms of overall safety, mobility, efficiency, productivity, environmental conservation, and customer satisfaction. With the right weather information, maintenance managers can plan ahead of time and respond proactively to weather events, construction managers can avoid labor costs or project delays due to inaccurate weather forecasts, and traffic managers can respond to weather events more effectively. In addition to safer and smoother highway operations and traffic flow, improved weather forecasting capabilities reduce operational expenses by deploying resources more efficiently across the different levels and units of UDOT.

The program is continuing to evolve to meet customer needs. Some of these added features include phone conferences to key personnel prior to storm events; increased reliance on telephone consultation with decreased emphasis on text forecasts; 24/7 meteorological staffing support out of the TOC; assisting TOC personnel in scripting weather-related messages for variable message signs, highway advisory radio and 511; and advising signal systems operational engineers on when to initiate corridor-specific snow signal timing plans.

Evaluating the effectiveness and benefits of the UDOT Weather Operations/RWIS Program is critical for UDOT to be able to answer the question as to whether the program was a good investment. If the program is proven to be cost-effective, UDOT may consider how to maximize its benefits and whether or not to expand its scope. In addition, the program may serve as a model for other states, especially those in the Intermountain West that experience rapid population increases (Horel et al, 2002). Information characterizing and quantifying the benefits of the adoption and deployment of such a program would allow other DOTs to support decisions in determining whether it should commit to customized weather service and, if so, at what rate it might budget and schedule deployment.

The research team took a phased approach to the evaluation of the UDOT Weather Operations/RWIS Program. This phase I evaluation focused on the forecasting services provided by the program to the Office of Central Maintenance, regional maintenance engineers and local maintenance sheds, and construction engineers and contractors, as highlighted in Figure 1‑1 in yellow. This research is innovative in that it aims to evaluate the program-level benefits through micro-level analyses, while most existing evaluation efforts aim to evaluate the project-level benefits of a specific system such as 511.

The evaluation of the services provided by the program to the TOC, and the activities involving the offices of Forensic Meteorology, Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), RWIS-ESS, and Training are not included in this phase.

1.2. Winter Maintenance Challenges and the Role of Weather Information

In the northern United States and Canada, snow and ice control operations are essential to ensure the safety, mobility and productivity of winter highways, where the driving conditions are often worsened by the inclement weather. The U.S. spends $2.3 billion annually to keep roads clear of snow and ice (FHWA, 2005); in Canada, more than $1 billion is spent annually on winter maintenance including road salts (Transportation Association of Canada, 2002).

Depending on the road weather scenarios, resources available and local rules of practice, DOTs use a combination of tools for winter road maintenance and engage in activities that include anti-icing, deicing, sanding and snowplowing. As the detrimental environmental impacts of abrasives are generally greater than those of chemicals (Staples et al., 2004), DOTs have begun to minimize the use of abrasives. The increased use of chemicals, however, has raised growing concerns over their effects on motor vehicles, the transportation infrastructure, and the environment (FHWA, 2002; Mussato et al., 2003; Buckler and Granato, 1999).

In recent years, transportation agencies across North America have been shifting from reactive strategies to proactive strategies for snow and ice control, such as anti-icing. Compared with traditional methods for snow and ice control (e.g., deicing and sanding), anti-icing leads to decreased applications of chemicals and abrasives, decreased maintenance costs, improved level of service, and lower accident rates (O’Keefe and Shi, 2006). Reliable weather forecasts are key to a successful anti-icing program, as the pavement surface temperature dictates the timing for anti-icing applications and the appropriate application rate.

Maintenance agencies are continually challenged to provide the desired level of service (LOS) and improve safety and mobility in a cost-effective manner while minimizing corrosion and other adverse effects to the environment. To this end, it is desirable to use the most recent advancements in the application of anti-icing and deicing materials, winter maintenance equipment and vehicle-based sensor technologies, and road weather information as well as other decision support systems. Such best practices are expected to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of winter highway operations, to optimize material usage and to reduce associated annual spending and corrosion and environmental impacts.

One key component in helping to meet these goals is obtaining and using accurate weather information. The benefits of accurate weather information are clearly evident when contrasted with some of the costs of inaccurate weather information, such as excessive use of chemicals and materials, failure to respond in a timely matter to a storm event (resulting in greater crash risk and user delay), unplanned use of overtime staffing, and others. Improvements in weather information can help in all stages of winter storm response, including pre-, during and post-storm.

Weather information can be divided into two temporal categories: observations, which reflect current conditions; and forecasts, which predict future conditions (Boselly et al., 1993). While understanding current conditions can be valuable, predictive forecasts can be used to develop an appropriate response to the weather. Forecasts may be subdivided into decision scales: micro (less than 1 hour); meso (1-6 hours); synoptic (6 hrs-week) and climatic (weeks and beyond) (FHWA, 1998). These scales correspond to the different ways that a forecast may affect future activities. A micro-scale analysis may be useful in deciding an application rate, while a synoptic-scale would be helpful for staffing and resource planning.

The UDOT Weather Operations/RWIS Program provides pre-storm, during-storm, and post-storm weather forecasts to the maintenance engineers, area supervisors and local sheds. The type of information in each forecast, and the benefits to maintenance, are shown in Table 1‑1. In addition to snow and ice control, such forecasts are also useful for the operations/projects of road rehabilitation, weed abatement, and avalanche safety.

Table 1‑1: Information Provided by the Program to Local Maintenance Sheds

Mostly through e-mail, the program creates and distributes weather forecasts in a text format (as shown in Figure 1‑2) twice a day and as weather conditions worsen. The morning forecast is for the next 36 hours, and the evening forecast is for the next 24 hours. In addition, area supervisors or shed foremen can call the program office to receive “nowcasts”, and on average the program receives 25 calls daily (with a maximum of 75 calls). The meteorologists will also call area supervisors or shed foremen if new information about the weather event indicates that an earlier forecast was inaccurate.

Figure 1‑2: Typical UDOT Weather Forecast in a Text Format

The UDOT Program provides weather forecasts that are much more detailed than traditional weather services. A traditional weather forecast might be in the following format:

· Tonight…Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of light snow. Breezy. Lows near 8 above. North winds 15 to 25 MPH. (Osborne, 2002)

In comparison, the UDOT weather forecast would be more localized and area-specific; for instance (courtesy of UDOT):

· “Quick ¾² to 1² snow over the next 1 hour.”

“Alerted for road concerns developing by 1400, sloppy onset. Up to 1-2² road snow for the commute tonight.”

“Snow band stalling again over your routes areas. Big thing will be dropping temps W-E late afternoon Park Valley, I-15 areas around 1800. General tapering trend west desert areas after temp drop, snow I-15 corridor through 0000.”

It is expected that such weather service will continually help UDOT maintenance personnel better utilize their resources (materials, staffing, and equipment) in snow and ice control and provide a desired LOS. For instance, as a proactive strategy, successful use of anti-icing chemicals requires application immediately prior to formation of snowpack, taking into account the onset, type, intensity and duration of winter storms, and thus entails accurate weather forecasts. The benefits from appropriate anti-icing include: improved LOS, cost savings, better maintenance response, improved environmental quality, and other indirect benefits (Boselly, 2001). When applied correctly, anti-icing can reduce the required plowing and decrease the quantity of chemicals required (U.S. EPA, 1999). In many conditions, anti-icing eliminates the need for abrasives, because it eliminates the cause of slipperiness (Williams, 2001). The benefits of anti-icing were demonstrated in a comparison between two maintenance divisions in Montana between the years 1997 and 2000. One division used anti-icing operations to a greater degree and achieved a higher LOS with a 37 percent cost savings per lane-mile (Goodwin, 2003).

1.3. Information Offered by This Report

This report preliminarily examines the business case of the UDOT Weather Operations/RWIS Program, and assesses its effectiveness and benefits particularly to the UDOT maintenance and construction functions. The evaluation aims to answer the following fundamental questions:

· Is the information provided by the program accurate, reliable, and easy to use? Is the program delivering the products it is supposed to? Are the customers satisfied with the service provided by the program?

· Is the information provided by the program changing users’ behavior, and if so, how?

· Is the information provided to UDOT personnel valuable in their operations, beyond what is available from other weather information providers?

· What are the benefits of the UDOT weather service to winter maintenance personnel?

1.4. Report Organization

The organization of this report is as follows. Chapter 2 reviews the need of weather information for surface transportation, existing efforts for improved weather forecasting and information integration, and the state-of-the-practice of using customized weather forecasts for winter maintenance in North America. Chapter 3 presents the methodology used to evaluate the benefits of the UDOT Weather Operations Program. Chapter 4 details the analysis of benefits of the UDOT weather service to winter maintenance personnel. Chapter 5 details the overall performance of the UDOT weather service as ranked by customers. Chapter 6 provides conclusions and recommendations.

2. Review of National State-of-the-Practice

The research team reviewed the use of weather information in surface transportation through a literature review and an on-line survey of transportation agencies. The purpose of this review was to help define how UDOT’s Weather Operations Program is similar to or different from other efforts, and to help identify potential benefits of the program.

2.1. Literature Review

A literature review was performed using both computerized searches as well as manual searches to identify the need for weather information for surface transportation and existing efforts to improve weather forecasting and information integration. The literature review also aimed to determine the following: how other maintenance agencies utilize weather information; if other maintenance agencies contract with a customized weather service provider or have staffed meteorologists; and how utilizing customized weather service information benefits maintenance agencies. The literature review targeted publications and documents from FHWA, transportation agencies, scientific journals and reliable websites. Researchers used the following sources in the computerized search:

· Transportation Research Information Service (http://trisonline.bts.gov/sundev/search.cfm)

Transportation Research Board (http://www.trb.org)

FHWA (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/)

State Departments of Transportation (DOTs)

Google Scholar (http://www.scholar.google.com)

Montana State University Library (http://www.lib.montana.edu/)

The rest of this section summarizes the findings of the literature review.

2.1.1. Weather Information Needs for Surface Transportation

Surface transportation in the U.S. is constantly threatened by the capricious character of weather, as weather “acts through visibility impairments, precipitation, high winds, temperature extremes, vehicle maneuverability, pavement friction, and roadway infrastructure” (OFCM, 2003). Adverse weather increases the likelihood of traffic accidents, which may result in injuries and fatalities. In 2001, there were more than 1.4 million weather-related crashes, resulting in 615,000 injuries and more than 6,900 fatalities (FHWA, 2004). The estimated economic cost from weather-related crashes in the U.S. alone amounts to nearly $42 billion annually (OFCM, 2003). In addition, adverse weather causes traffic delays, estimated at nearly one billion person-hours per year (FHWA, 2004), which degrade the productivity, reliability and user experience of the surface transportation system.

Improving the quality and accessibility of road and weather information may benefit a wide spectrum of weather data users, including: state and municipal departments of transportation (DOTs), public weather “forecasting” agencies, public weather “consumer” agencies, private weather information providers, electronic and print media, road users, in-vehicle navigation system providers, the general public, mass transit, and rail (Murphy, 2005).

For the State of Utah, a RWIS traveler information evaluation completed in 2000 indicates that drivers prefer road condition information when the conditions alter driving performance (e.g., accumulating snow, ice, high wind for truckers, road closures). In addition, conditions by specific location and corridor are preferred over a more general description of area weather (Martin et al., 2000).

For transportation agencies operating and maintaining roadways, railroads and waterways, their operational environment is harnessed to the uncertainty of weather forecasting. Because of their responsibilities, their personnel need to travel in all weather conditions, and knowledge of current, forecasted, and historical road and weather conditions assists in the completion of the agencies’ missions. Furthermore, they can use road and weather information to make the surface transportation system safer for the traveling public and to inform travelers of potentially dangerous conditions.

Adverse weather is unavoidable, but it is possible to mitigate the threats it poses on the surface transportation system, through timely, accurate, reliable, and user-friendly road and weather information that supports surface transportation. In addition to ensuring the safety, mobility, efficiency and productivity of the transportation system, weather information for surface transportation will play an increasingly important role in emergency preparedness at all levels of federal, state, and local planning and response (OFCM, 2003).

While there is an abundance of information from weather stations operated by various agencies, challenges for transportation agency users remain. First, such information is often not available in a timely fashion. Second, such information may not be reliable in terms of data quality and availability. Third, such information is usually too general to derive the trend of road temperature in a specific area or on a specific route. Finally, such information is not easily accessible in a user-friendly manner. Therefore, assessing the road and weather conditions in the region is usually a time-consuming and inefficient task, as most of the available weather data are not designed for the purpose of supporting surface transportation.

Partly attributable to the paradigm shift from reactive to pro-active winter maintenance strategies and tactics, state and local maintenance professionals across North America are beginning to realize the importance of high-resolution, customized, area-specific weather forecasts for surface transportation (Block et al, 2003; Pisano, 2001; Davies et al, 1998).

While progress has been made to provide maintenance agencies with weather information, the information is often insufficient for operations (Block et al, 2003; Williamson and Estis, 2005; Pisano et al, 2005; Davies et al, 1998). This is in part because many crews rely on the National Weather Service (NWS) or private services that re-package data from NWS. NWS forecasts are often too vague for maintenance personnel in terms of timing, storm intensity and location (Davies et al, 1998). In 2003, FORETELL, a multi-state program focused on integrating ITS and intelligent weather systems (IWS) to provide weather information for surface transportation, performed a market analysis. From this analysis, the deficiencies with current weather information were highlighted, including:

· Lack of information and geographic coverage;

· Insufficient timeliness;

· Inaccuracies that result in lack of confidence in making decisions;

· Lack of necessary detail,

· Difficulties in acquiring information, and

· High cost of acquiring information (Skarpness et al, 2003).

Benefits of using detailed forecasts for winter maintenance include the reduction of unnecessary worker call-outs, reduction in unnecessary use of snow and ice control materials, better planning in advance of a storm, and increased use of anti-icing practices. It is also possible that the winter maintenance activities could be performed at lower costs while increasing the level of safety for travelers (Davies et al, 1998).

2.1.2. Improved Weather Forecasting and Better Information Integration

Weather information may be gathered from a variety of sources. One trend among transportation agencies is to use sources that provide information more customized toward the roadway environment. This includes development of forecasts at a smaller geographic scale, in addition to focusing on weather at the road surface, where reduced pavement friction can adversely affect motorist safety and travel time. The Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP) conducted research regarding the potential benefits of improved weather information (Boselly et al., 1993; Boselly and Ernst, 1993) in the early 1990s. This research provided a comprehensive examination of RWIS at a time when RWIS implementation in the United States was not widespread. It also analyzed the potential cost-effectiveness of adopting improved weather information (including RWIS and tailored forecasting services), with a simulation model based on data from three U.S. cities.

Currently, there are several efforts across the United States focused on providing weather information for surface transportation, particularly in the fields of improved weather forecasting and better information integration. While these efforts have advanced how weather information is accessed and used for management of the highway system, the UDOT Weather Operations/ RWIS Program is nonetheless unique, with staff meteorologists stationed in the TOC providing detailed, often customized, area-specific weather forecasts.

RWIS

Many transportation agencies have adopted RWIS as an important weather information tool. RWIS includes the hardware, software, and communications interfaces necessary to collect and transfer field observations from a remote site to a display device at the user’s location. RWIS collects data from an environmental sensor station (ESS), which includes a suite of atmospheric, pavement/sub-surface, and water level sensors (Manfredi et al., 2005). They differ from conventional weather stations in that they are always deployed in the immediate highway environment, they often measure conditions on the roadway itself; and they are generally deployed where roadway weather conditions tend to be worst. Pavement sensors may be very useful in helping to forecast the likelihood and timing of icing events; however, due to their cost, not all RWIS will use these sensors.

ESS installation may be characterized as either regional or local. Regional sites focus on defining initial conditions to support road weather prediction models, providing ground truth measurements for evaluating forecast accuracy, and improving the ability to anticipate weather changes. They are generally sited to be representative of conditions in the area, and thus are recommended for placement in areas of uniform roadway conditions in flat, open terrain. Local sites require sensors to be placed to measure whatever conditions are of most interest for road weather at specific points, such as icy pavement, low visibility, and high winds (Manfredi et al., 2005).

RWIS provide detailed weather information, but only for specific points along the roadway; information on conditions between these points must be generated from other sources and/or interpolated. Moreover, there are significant costs associated with RWIS networks, not only for initial installation activities, but on-going maintenance, calibration, communications and power.

Clarus Initiative

In 2004, the National Research Council published a visionary document entitled “Where the Weather Meets the Road: A Research Agenda for Improving Road Weather Services” (National Academies, 2004). The report identified the need for a nationwide resource to better utilize surface transportation weather observations that would ultimately provide a more concise picture of current conditions on the surface transportation system and to energize efforts to improve forecasting for the roadway environment. This led to the birth of the Clarus (which means “clear” in Latin) Initiative funded by FHWA from 2004 to 2009, the goal of which is to “develop and demonstrate an integrated surface transportation weather observation data management system, and to establish a partnership to create a nationwide surface transportation weather observing and forecasting system” (Pisano et al, 2005). Such a “system of systems” would “collect, quality control, archive, and disseminate surface transportation weather observations” (Pisano et al., 2005). It is envisioned to improve surface transportation weather forecasting with enhanced data density, quality and integration. A Clarus demonstration is currently planned for the winter of 2006-07, with more development activity occurring in subsequent years (Clarus Initiative, 2006). UDOT is actively supporting the Clarus Initiative and has been selected as one of states in its Proof of Concept study.

MDSS

In 2000, FHWA engaged a pool of maintenance practitioners from several state DOTs and researchers from several national laboratories with expertise in weather forecasting and winter road engineering to develop a prototype winter Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS). MDSS aims to provide current road and weather data and forecasts and real-time treatment recommendations specific to winter road maintenance routes (e.g., treatment locations, types, times, and rates), tailored for winter road maintenance decision makers. With the right information, winter maintenance managers can respond proactively by managing the infrastructure and deploying resources in real time.

FHWA’s functional prototype MDSS capitalized on existing road and weather data sources and state-of-the-art weather forecasting models and data fusion techniques. By integrating measured and forecasted road and weather data with proven rules of practice, MDSS provides winter maintenance personnel with diagnostic and prognostic maps of road conditions by maintenance route and a decision support tool with treatment recommendations along with anticipated consequences of action or inaction. The functional prototype has been tested through field demonstrations in central Iowa in 2002-03 and 2003-04 (CTRE, 2003; NCAR, 2004), and on Colorado’s E-470 in 2004-05 (NCAR, 2005).

In 2002, a pooled fund study, led by South Dakota and now including Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Dakota and Wyoming, emerged as a natural offshoot of the Federal initiative. The study sought to establish an operational MDSS that meets or exceeds the federal vision of an MDSS (Hart and Osborne, 2003) and contracted with Meridian Environmental Technology to develop the operational prototype. Phase 1 of the study resulted in the development of an architecture, based on evaluating FHWA’s functional prototype MDSS and extensive outreach to DOT personnel to understand the requirements of the operational MDSS. The resulting architecture differed from the FHWA functional prototype in that it used “a forecasting technique that integrates computer-based processing and the expertise of professional meteorologists,” and it does not rely on FHWA Rules of Practice but instead “views each weather-induced situation as unique and the appropriate response is based upon the physics and chemistry of the processes occurring on the pavement surface” (Hart and Osborne, 2003). Phase 2 worked toward development of an operational MDSS. There were concurrent efforts including fundamental research used for developing and enhancing modules (e.g. chemical concentration/freezing point computation) and software programming and development. A Limited Deployment Tactical Integration (LDTI) was unveiled in spring 2004. Training workshops resulted in identification and implementation of improvements to the graphical user interface. Phase 2 recommended demonstration and evaluation of an operational test in the 2004-05 winter (Hart et al., 2004). Through subsequent project phases, testing has expanded to 200 test sections in the winter of 2005-06, with a plan for 600-800 test sections during the winter of 2006-07 (Huft, 2006). The purpose of this testing is similar to that conducted on the federal prototype: verifying the reliability of weather and road condition predictions, and assessing the usability of the interface and treatment recommendations. Guidance has also been prepared to assist states in procuring MDSS-compliant technology. An evaluation project led by the Western Transportation Institute is under way to assess the benefits and costs associated with implementation of MDSS by a state transportation agency. Another MDSS system, developed by DTN/Meteorlogix, is being tested by other states.

In its ultimate vision, MDSS provides forecast functionality that overlaps some of what the UDOT Weather Operations/RWIS Program currently provides. However, earlier demonstrations have shown that MDSS forecasting modules need to be adjusted to better reflect local conditions. Such adjustments are based on human experience that is already integrated within the UDOT program. MDSS seeks to go beyond this by providing treatment recommendations, which currently are not provided by the UDOT meteorologists. However, UDOT meteorologists can provide customized, user-specific information that goes beyond specific scenarios in winter maintenance.

UDOT is not a member of the pooled-fund study, nor is it actively supporting the DTN/Meteorlogix effort. However, UDOT is involved in an Aurora research study to integrate UDOT’s weather forecasts into the Pooled Fund MDSS modules.

Aurora

The Aurora program is an international, collaborative group that focuses on research, evaluation and deployment of RWIS with a goal “to improve the efficiency of highway maintenance operations and distribute effective real-time information to travelers” (Belter et al, 2005). Participating transportation agencies provide funding that is pooled together to support a variety of collaborative research projects.

One of Aurora’s projects involved synthesizing the use of road weather forecasts internationally. It was determined that the majority of the transportation agencies surveyed, including the Ontario Ministry of Transportation (Canada); the German Federal Ministry of Transport, Building, and Housing; the Danish Road Directorate; the Norwegian Public Roads Administration; the Lancashire County Council (United Kingdom); and the Swedish National Road Administration; had a direct agreement with their meteorological agency to receive forecast information. Other transportation agencies, including the Finnish National Road Administration, Transit New Zealand and the Hokkaido Development Bureau in Japan, did not have a direct agreement with their meteorological agency but contracted with a private weather service provider instead (Newsome, 2001).

Aurora is continually supporting research topics that range from MDSS, meso-scale modeling for detailed and short term weather forecasts, standards and architecture for RWIS, dissemination of data, equipment evaluations, to road condition monitoring (Belter et al, 2005). UDOT is a member of the Aurora Group.

CASA

Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) is a group that aims to improve surface weather information by forecasting weather conditions in the lower atmosphere. Research within CASA focuses on improving storm forecasts by providing a dense network of low-powered radars. These low-powered radars have the ability to adjust their target automatically and should help improve the forecasting of surface weather information by sensing changing weather patterns in the lower atmosphere (Brotzge and Droegemeier, 2006). The first test-bed demonstrating CASA’s technology is currently operational (McLaughlin and Phillips, 2006).

FORETELL

FORETELL is a multi-state advanced road and weather condition prediction system developed by Castle Rock Consultants that integrates satellite, radar and surface observations with RWIS data, using state-of-the-art NOAA/NWS weather models and decision support displays (http://www.crc-corp.com/projects/archive/Foretell.htm). For instance, the FORETELL application can display the current or predicted precipitation for the area of interest, at a six-mile grid resolution. FORETELL uses NWS data sources, airport sensors, road sensors and mobile platforms. National weather prediction is supplemented by regional weather models covering New England and the Upper Mississippi Valley at greater resolution. Manual road reports are added to the system using the sister system, Condition Acquisition and Reporting System (CARS). CARS is a road reporting system that creates a multi-state database of highway events and acts as the hub of state-wide and regional traveler information systems, bringing multiple agencies together and creating state-wide virtual transportation management centers (TMCs) (http://www.crc-corp.com/projects/Cars.htm).

The service provided by FORETELL includes a 24-hour forecast updated four times per day as well as hourly updates known as “nowcasts”, and pavement condition predictions (Pisano, 2001). FORETELL also uses pager, e-mail, radio and 511 telephone systems to distribute weather and road conditions on demand. It is expected that the information provided by FORETELL will benefit maintenance agencies in the following ways:

· Know when to call for additional trucks/drivers,

· Plan for split shifts for long storms,

· Pre-treat roads with anti-icing materials,

· More effective management of staff and materials, and

· Save money by reducing overtime and material usage (Pisano, 2001).

rWeather

rWeather is a web-based system that was created and is maintained by the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) and the University of Washington to collect real-time and predictive statewide road and weather information and disseminate it to WSDOT maintenance and other decision makers, as well as to the public. In February 2004, the rWeather website became part of WSDOT’s Statewide Traveler Information site (http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/weather).

rWeather integrates weather data from nearly 400 weather stations throughout the state and offers the data at a single location in a graphic format. The MM5 forecast model used for rWeather is generated by the Northwest Regional Weather Consortium and the University of Washington.

A study was conducted to evaluate the impacts of rWeather on WSDOT winter road maintenance activities, in which questionnaires were distributed to area superintendents, supervisors, and lead technicians. A total of 129 questionnaires were returned and analyzed. 79 percent of respondents were aware of the rWeather website, and of those, 78 percent had used it. Nine of the ten features on the rWeather website were rated useful by more than half of the respondents. The most valuable features recognized by maintenance personnel users included: NWS warnings, satellite and radar images, and the statewide weather map. On the other hand, less than half of the respondents indicated that the rWeather pavement temperatures feature was useful. Approximately 70 percent of respondents wanted more investment in training related to interpreting weather data, and 50 percent of respondents wanted additional training to improve anti-icing strategies. The study recommended that comparisons be made between forecast and actual pavement temperatures and atmospheric weather conditions, and the findings be shared with maintenance personnel (http://www.itsbenefits.its.dot.gov/its/benecost.nsf/ByLink/BOTM-April2006).

WeatherShare

Similar to rWeather, WeatherShare is a web-based system that features the integration of regional weather and road data and forecasts from multiple sources and agencies. WeatherShare does not offer interactive or customized weather forecasts. WeatherShare was funded by the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) and created by the Western Transportation Institute, as a component of the Redding Incident Management Enhancement (RIME) program, which consists of a group of technology initiatives designed to improve public safety in the Redding area.

Phase I of WeatherShare focused on 11 counties in Caltrans District 2 as well as 9 counties in the adjacent Caltrans districts. The goal was to streamline currently available weather and road data from Caltrans RWIS sites, NWS sites, and other sources available in the region into one single source easily accessible by incident responders and potentially the traveling public. The system allows users to view a compilation of all available road weather information from various sources in the region, increasing the efficiency of situation assessments for a variety of purposes, including incident management, highway maintenance, emergency medical services, traveler information, and, possibly, homeland security applications. Variation of the user interface depends on the user’s needs and specifications (Shi et al., 2006).

Phase II is under way to expand the Phase I product, a proof-of-concept system (www.weathershare.org), to cover the entire state and to enhance its functionality and user interface. In addition, the research team will assist Caltrans in analyzing the business case while developing partnerships and plans for long-term maintenance and management of the system. The team will evaluate system use and functionality over multiple seasons and across a wide audience of prospective users with results incorporated in the business case analysis. In conjunction with evaluation, WTI will conduct an on-going needs and requirements analysis and, where appropriate, conduct development and outreach to address identified needs and requirements.

WeatherView

WeatherView is a web-based system maintained by the Iowa State Department of Transportation to collect real-time and predictive statewide road and weather information and disseminate it to DOT maintenance and other decision makers, as well as to the public (http://www.dotweatherview.com/). The information is from a variety of sources:

· RWIS sensors located in and along Iowa’s Interstate and primary roads

· AWOS (Automated Weather Observing System) sensors as part of the Iowa Aviation Weather System, located at 35 airports across the state

· Regional forecasts: excerpts from a winter forecast received by the Iowa DOT from a private contractor

· Bridge frost forecasts: from a private contractor by the Iowa DOT to make decisions on managing bridge frost

Private-Sector Meteorological Services

Maintenance agencies often contract with independent weather service providers to receive detailed forecasts. For instance, Meridian Environmental Technology is one weather service provider that supplies maintenance agencies with detailed forecast information. Meridian has increased the efficiency of forecast generation and dissemination, which allows meteorologists more time to analyze weather patterns, producing forecasts with higher accuracy (Block et al, 2003).

It has been reported that advances in meteorology, telecommunications and computational programs “have created a situation in which forecasters have more to offer transportation operators and users than ever before” (Davies et al, 1998). The weather support system that was developed as part of the effort to prepare Salt Lake City and Utah for the 2002 Winter Olympics is a great example of such new advancements at work. This system assisted UDOT with the maintenance of winter roadways, preventing delays to venues by both athletes and spectators. NorthWest Weathernet Inc. was the primary provider of road and pavement condition forecasts for UDOT during the Olympics, and since the Olympics, this provider has continued providing weather forecasts to UDOT (Horel et al, 2002).

2.2. Survey of Use of Customized Weather Forecasts for Winter Maintenance

The use of weather programs and customized, area-specific forecasts across North America was evaluated both through the literature review as well as an online survey posted on the Snow and Ice List Serve (http://www.sicop.net/snow_and_ice_list-serve.htm). This survey was also sent to members of the Pacific Northwest Snowfighters Association (http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/partners/pns/). Questions for this survey were developed with the knowledge of the UDOT program and the information gained through the literature review. The survey on the list serve was brief, focusing on if agencies used forecasting; if agencies used customized, area-specific forecasts and from what source; benefits from using weather forecasting; and satisfaction with forecasting services. Incomplete entries were followed up by e-mail. The questionnaire is included as Appendix A.

Many transportation agencies utilize and rely on weather information for maintenance tasks. Maintenance professionals throughout North America were contacted and asked to fill out a survey through the Snow and Ice List Serve. A total of 31 individuals from 19 U.S. states and 4 Canadian provinces responded to the survey, of which 81 percent were from the U.S. while the remaining 19 percent were Canadian. Professionals included directors (16 percent), maintenance managers (33 percent), engineers (32 percent), superintendents (13 percent), area supervisors (3 percent), and technologists (3 percent) from U.S. and Canadian city agencies as well as U.S. State DOTs and Canadian Provincial/Regional agencies. The geographic distribution of respondents is shown in Figure 2‑1.

Figure 2‑1: States and Provinces Participated in the Snow and Ice List Serve Survey

All respondents indicated that they used weather forecasts to assist them in winter road maintenance activities, and that they paid for customized weather forecasts as well. The most common weather service providers were NorthWest Weathernet, Meridian, Meteorlogix, World Weatherwatch and Accuweather (see Figure 2‑2). An interesting finding was that most agencies, 52 percent, are relatively new subscribers to this type of weather service (see Figure 2‑3). Some respondents also considered their RWIS service provider as a customized, area-specific forecast provider, which may not be accurate.

Figure 2‑2: Survey Results: Most Common Weather Service Providers

Figure 2‑3: Survey Results: Number of Years using Customized Weather Information

The most common benefits of using a customized, area-specific forecast, as recognized by the surveyed maintenance professionals, include:

· More accurate forecasts (due to the knowledge of microclimates);